Forrester Revisited
Thursday 24th May 2018
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Jay Forrester's original work was an eyeopener …

… when he showed that, even when everybody in the chain behaved 'sensibly', a slight change in demand led to huge, irrational variations in throughput.

In some ways this work seeded the origins of logistics as a recognised, cross functional, integrating and co-ordinating profession. Inevitably, it didn't happen overnight.

It heavily influenced my work, and to this date I design and implement completely 'Whip Proof' solutions.

But I sure as hell see a lot that haven't learned the lessons from his groundbreaking 1958 work.

For all its impact, Forrester used the simulation tools current at the time.
As late as 1982 I had a startling insight into those limitations when I was asked 'how far into the shift will the first (random) breakdown occur?'

We have more powerful and accessible tools now, and some of us are finding additional causes for Bullwhip

This highly customisable Tool helps explore whether the textbook fix for Bullwhip is both right and complete.
Usually it's incomplete. On occasions - mostly with the unholy cocktail of slow movers and forecasting systems - we need a completely different approach.

I always wondered about this. Please contact me

If most of the inputs are in control most of the time, the outcome is still erratic.
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